Regional Forecast

2050 regional forecast (march, 2023)

SEMCOG began development in late 2021 of the 2050 Regional Forecast, which provides a thirty-year analysis of change in population, households, jobs, and land use for each community in the seven-county region. We produce a new forecast of the region’s future once every five years. 

The Regional Forecast is critical in understanding how many people will live and work in our region in the future. Knowing where households and jobs will be located helps us understand where to plan future infrastructure improvements – roads, bridges, water and sewer.

the economic and demographic outlook for southeast michigan through 2050

In partnership with the University of Michigan, SEMCOG has published the report, The Economic and Demographic Outlook for Southeast Michigan through 2050: A Baseline and Four Alternative Scenarios. The report summarizes the methods used and the broad results for our most recent outlook for the region. We also consider four alternative scenarios that are of particular interest to Southeast Michigan, which result in different economic trajectories and outcomes for the region.

The last year of historical data in the model used to produce the forecasts is 2019, while the forecast period runs through 2050. The report details future changes in the region among several key indicators; they include population, employment, the labor force participation rate, personal income, households, and Gross Domestic Product. The baseline forecast and alternative scenarios were developed using a version of the REMI TranSight model (REMI, 2021), together with a methodology for developing household forecasts designed by the University of Michigan in cooperation with MDOT.

View Outlook through 2050

regional forecast results

SEMCOG’s General Assembly adopted the 2050 Regional Forecast for Counties and Communities on March 23rd, 2023. This includes SEMCOG’s forecast of total population, household, and employment change for each community and county in Southeast Michigan, for the period 2020 through 2050. Prior to General Assembly adoption, SEMCOG’s Executive Committee approved the draft 2050 Regional Forecast for Counties and Communities on February 24th, 2023.

• 2050 Regional Forecast Presentation to the Executive Committee (2/24/2023)
• 2050 Regional Forecast by County and Community Summary PDF
• 2050 Regional Forecast by School District Quick Facts PDF
• 2050 Regional Forecast by Community Excel Spreadsheet
• 2050 Regional Forecast by Traffic Analysis Zone Excel Spreadsheet
• 2050 Regional Forecast by School District and ISD Excel Spreadsheet

2050 regional forecast explorer

SEMCOG has developed a new interactive data and mapping tool to display 2050 regional forecast results by multiple geographies. The 2050 Regional Forecast Explorer allows users to view several maps of leading forecast indicators, and provides summary reports of 2050 Regional Forecast results for each county and community in Southeast Michigan. These summary reports detail change in population, households, and employment, by several types. Additional geographies and forecast data distributions will continue to be added to the Forecast Explorer in the coming months.

The Forecast Explorer also contains several additional interactive maps and slide presentations that provide context for the demographic, economic, and land use changes the region will experience, and highlights key messages of the 2050 Regional Forecast.

Visit Regional Forecast Explorer

community stakeholder meetings

SEMCOG held a series of Community Stakeholder open house meeting for the 2050 Regional Development Forecast. Three meetings were held within the region during the second week of January 2023. At each of these meetings, SEMCOG released its draft 30-year forecast of population, households, and jobs for each county and community in Southeast Michigan. Local leaders then had opportunities to review and give feedback on the draft forecast for their communities and explore key regional trends.

View Meetings Presentation

regional control totals

Working with our partners at MDOT and the University of Michigan, SEMCOG has been developing the population and employment totals for the 2050 Regional Forecast. These projections will serve as the control totals for the upcoming county and community forecasts, and provide an extensive view of how Southeast Michigan will change over the next 30 years. The regional control totals for the 2050 forecast were presented at SEMCOG’s October 13^th General Assembly meeting. The slides of the presentation and related materials can be found below.

community development expectations

The 2050 Regional Forecast needs the best possible local data to establish the right future development trends in each community. For that reason, our staff has been meeting with communities to understand their future growth expectations and collect data on planned development. The future buildings that communities expect to be constructed over the next few years have been compiled in our map of planned development in Southeast Michigan.

View Planned Development Map

Each community will have the opportunity to provide their own development expectations to SEMCOG. Our staff will be meeting with many communities to share an inventory of their future buildings to ensure we have accurately captured expected development.